Friday, March 21, 2008

Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning

Well, someone has finally come out and said it: according to the Politico, the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination is basically over. Because of the Democratic Party rules for proportionate allocation of delegates, the lead for elected delegates to the Democratic Convention in August remains with Senator Obama unless Senator Clinton can win every single outstanding primary by at least 60% including Michigan and Florida revotes. Otherwise, she must convince superdelegates they should favor her over the candidate who won the most delegates, the most state contests and the most votes in the lead up to the convention. The possibility of either of those scenarios is close to zero even before factoring in that the Clinton campaign is seriously in debt.

Here is Jim Vanehei and Mike Allen in the Politico:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.

The continuation of Senator Clinton’s campaign is eating up resources that should be directed at securing not only the White House for the Democrats in November but also for governable majorities in Congress. Given the closeness the two are on most issues, her continued campaign is not for the promotion of principle or for the best interest of the party or the country.

You can read the entire Politico piece here.

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